The Obama administration recently expressed hopes recently of reaching a deal by the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty’s expiration on December 5. Earlier officials had spoken of having a ratified treaty fully in effect before then, a goal that is now beyond their reach.
Letting the old treaty lapse should not present a problem because the countries are negotiating an interim agreement that would maintain START’s provisions. That includes allowing each countries’ inspectors to continue to verify that the other side is respecting the terms of the expired treaty.
The shifting goals reflect the intensive haggling as the two sides try to resolve the remaining technical issues. The Obama administration would like a quick conclusion to demonstrate an improvement in US-Russian relations and to gain momentum for other arms control and nonproliferation goals. The US also is looking for cooperation on issues including reining in Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, Russia has fewer incentives for an immediate deal.
The two sides have already agreed on the broad outlines of an agreement. Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed at a Moscow summit in July to cut the number of nuclear warheads each possesses to between 1,500 and 1,675 within seven years as part of a broad new treaty. The existing START treaty set a limit of 6,000 warheads each.