Regarding criteria to turn Vietnam into an industrialised country by the year 2020, Vice Minister of Planning and Investment Truong Van Doan said Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita should reach more than US$5,000 per year. This is the most important criterion. Economic restructuring should create adequate conditions for industry to account for 45-50 percent of GDP, services 40-50 percent and agriculture 10 percent. .
However, some people said it is difficult for Vietnam to become an industrialised country by 2020 as Vietnam’s GDP stands only at US$630, with industry accounting for just over 40 percent, services nearly 39 percent and agriculture more than 20 percent. Therefore, according to the above mentioned criteria, Vietnam’s economic growth rate must reach over 15 percent per year on average in the 15 years to come. Meanwhile, according to experts, Vietnam’s GDP growth will reach only 8-8.5 percent on average by 2020. So, Vietnam’s GDP will only stand at US$1,800-2,200 by 2020.
President of Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) Dinh Van An said there is no agreement on industrialised criteria in the world. Normally, countries do not set up a schedule to complete the industrialisation process. Therefore, there should not be too many detailed criteria for Vietnam. Director of Department for Trade Policy and International Integration Studies under CIEM Vo Chi Thanh said the concept of industrialisation is demonstrated by three criteria. They include increasing of the industrial output in GDP, the role of services in the national economy, especially value added and intelligence services, and links between industry, technology and services.
Following the above criteria, many people agreed to the roadmap that was proposed by Mr An. Accordingly, from 2005 to 2010 it is essential to develop industrial sectors that serve the agricultural sector, as well as sectors that have the advantages of comparison. It is also necessary to boost the rural and agricultural modernisation process, gradually increase the proportion of industrial and service sectors in GDP, and integrate deeper into the global economy.
From 2011 to 2015, based on the development of sectors with advantages of comparison, it is important to mobilise investment for effective production sectors, develop these sectors into the spearhead of the economy, and increase the proportion of industrial and service sectors and non-agricultural labour in GDP to 80-85 percent and 50-60 percent, respectively.
From 2016 to 2020, Vietnam aims to realise its set targets to maintain sustainable economic growth and becoming an industrial country, while the proportion of industrial and service sectors is expected to reach 85-90 percent of GDP.
To implement the above roadmap, Mr An said, it is essential to define and qualify the competitive advantages of various sectors and regions in the country so as to boost the modernisation process and avoid ineffective industrial development.
"Criteria for implementing the modernisation process or developing Vietnam into an industrial country by 2020 should be considered directive instructions, not rigid criteria," Mr An noted.
Sharing Mr An’s viewpoint, Mr Doan said: "An industrial country must be a country that takes an active role in implementing the international economic integration process."
According to Mr Doan, Vietnam’s economy must be able to complete equally in terms of trade and bilateral and multi-lateral relations. The country must achieve high export growth rate, attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) in hi-tech sectors, and repay its foreign debt.
Meanwhile, Mr Thanh said that Vietnam’s current policies on industrial sectors should focus on the equitisation process and the restructuring of State-owned enterprises in order to raise the effectiveness of their business operations.